Many people claim that it’s difficult to be a winner at the race track. But as you are about to see, this is not correct. If you would like a horseracing system that is both profitable and easy to use, why don’t you try this great little system? It has only three rules yet it is so simple that anyone can become an excellent handicapper with it.
I’m going to teach you the rules, and then I will show why the system works and critique its advantages and weaknesses.
The Rules
First: The race must be a claiming race but it can not be a maiden claiming race. You can see if the race is a claiming race by looking at the race description at the top of either the past performances or the track program.
Second: Calculate each horse’s lifetime earnings per start. Use this simple equation to calculate the LEPS: (lifetime earnings) / (lifetime starts) = (lifetime earnings per start). You can find the horse’s lifetime earnings and lifetime starts in the top right corner of its listing in the past performances.
Third: Bet the horse to win that has the highest lifetime earnings per start if the horse’s closing odds are greater than or equal to 8-to-1.
Why this Method Works
Because of their differences genetically, all horses are not the same and they have different levels of ability. So there are different class levels in horse racing. If a race horse is in good condition, he will win easily if he is dropped to a much lower class level.
Any horse that is selected by the system will almost certainly have won races at much higher class levels in the past. The horses selected by this system in general can not win at their previous class level because they have had injuries. So they become “betting tools.” The trainers keep these horses in the stable because they are looking to use them to make money cashing large bets. The trainer knows that if the horse can get back to its original level of competition even for only one more race, it will be an easy winner against the cheaper horses in the race today. So because of trainer manipulation, these horses do win and often win unexpectedly without showing any signs of improvement. Also because of this manipulation by the trainer, these horses will usually pay long shot odds.
Strengths and Weak Points Using this System
This system is extremely lucrative over an extended period of time and will usually generate an income of 20% to 30% per each dollar bet. The weakest point of the system is the win percent which will only average from ten to fourteen percent. This means if you use this system you should expect large losing streaks.
The number of losing streaks for any system is governed by the method’s win percentage. Suppose for example that your percentage of wins was about 14%, which is a somewhat optimistic assumption for this system. The expected largest losing streak for 1000 bets would be 34 losers in a row. So if we make the assumption of 14% winners, we should also expect see 27 losing streaks of 10 or more in a row for each 1000 bets. This would mean you would be losing 10 or more consecutive losers about 37% of the time while you’re using this system.
One of the most important factors to consider when evaluating any handicapping system is the percentage of winners. If you are looking for a horse racing system with a much higher percentage of winners than this system, please consider “The Indicator Handicapping Method” which is the featured handicapping system at my website, turfanalyst.com.
You can download a free thoroughbred handicapping e-book at his website:
http://turfanalyst.com
Also available is additional information on this subject at:
http://turfanalyst.com/betting-systems-horses.html